1月20日，國新辦(ban)舉行2021年(nian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)經濟運行情況新聞發布會。針對(dui)促(cu)進(jin)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)增收(shou)(shou)問題，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)部(bu)總農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藝師、發展規(gui)劃司司長曾衍(yan)德表示，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資價(jia)格仍在(zai)高位(wei)運行，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)外(wai)出就業不穩定(ding)不確定(ding)因素增多，確保農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)收(shou)(shou)入持續(xu)穩定(ding)增長面臨很大(da)壓力。今年(nian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)部(bu)將把農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)增收(shou)(shou)擺(bai)在(zai)更(geng)加突出的位(wei)置，其中包括落(luo)實政策促(cu)增收(shou)(shou)。重點(dian)是適當提(ti)高小麥、稻(dao)谷最(zui)低收(shou)(shou)購價(jia)，深化(hua)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)改革，讓農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)更(geng)多分(fen)享政策紅利。如此來看，稻(dao)谷最(zui)低收(shou)(shou)購價(jia)將連續(xu)3年(nian)上調(diao)。

回顧2021年(nian)(nian)稻(dao)米(mi)市場(chang)，整(zheng)體走勢偏弱，供需矛盾(dun)愈發尖銳。首先表現為稻(dao)谷(gu)豐產(chan)，稻(dao)谷(gu)產(chan)量達4257億(yi)斤，較(jiao)上一年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)20億(yi)斤，供應相對寬松；其次國(guo)際大米(mi)價(jia)格走低(di)，與(yu)國(guo)內大米(mi)價(jia)差(cha)較(jiao)大，進(jin)口劇增；再者，地方(fang)輪換(huan)導(dao)致市場(chang)化糧源較(jiao)多。各(ge)個流通環節的(de)(de)糧源均充足，需求卻難有好轉，尤其是口糧消費方(fang)面，隨著(zhu)食物種類的(de)(de)多元化變遷，大米(mi)作(zuo)為食品食用(yong)的(de)(de)消費力正(zheng)在萎縮。超(chao)期糧只(zhi)得作(zuo)為低(di)廉的(de)(de)替(ti)代品流向飼(si)料與(yu)工(gong)業領域。

加之，2021年(nian)農資價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)上漲明(ming)顯，尤其是化肥、農藥價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)上漲幅(fu)度(du)較(jiao)大，水(shui)稻的(de)種(zhong)植成本增加，農戶(hu)(hu)水(shui)稻種(zhong)植收(shou)(shou)益大幅(fu)縮減，由于市場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)未(wei)達心理預期從而引發農戶(hu)(hu)惜售情緒(xu)高(gao)漲，截至目前，北(bei)方局部地(di)區余糧仍(reng)在高(gao)位，約6-7成。以上種(zhong)種(zhong)，需要(yao)通過上調稻谷最低收(shou)(shou)購價(jia)(jia)來保(bao)障(zhang)農戶(hu)(hu)種(zhong)植水(shui)稻的(de)合理收(shou)(shou)益，營造良性市場(chang)(chang)購銷氛圍。

2022年(nian)的稻(dao)米(mi)(mi)市場(chang)，供大于(yu)需現狀依舊(jiu)，且短期(qi)難以有效改善。新年(nian)將至(zhi)，各地備貨(huo)告一段落(luo)，米(mi)(mi)企及貿易商均(jun)維持剛需庫存。節后的稻(dao)米(mi)(mi)市場(chang)，疲軟的需求或(huo)將延(yan)續，短期(qi)市場(chang)難有利好(hao)提(ti)振，價格上(shang)漲難度較(jiao)大，預計將延(yan)續低迷態勢。

雖然目(mu)前2022年(nian)稻(dao)谷(gu)最(zui)低收(shou)購(gou)價還沒公布(bu)，按照往年(nian)的情(qing)況來看，一(yi)般會(hui)在2月下旬(xun)公布(bu)當年(nian)的稻(dao)谷(gu)最(zui)低收(shou)購(gou)價。預計稻(dao)谷(gu)最(zui)低收(shou)購(gou)價將在2021年(nian)的基礎上小(xiao)幅略(lve)漲的可能性較高，很(hen)難超越2014年(nian)1.35元(yuan)/斤(jin)、1.38元(yuan)/斤(jin)與1.55元(yuan)/斤(jin)。